Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
