Amid the immense confusion regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a renegade nation.
He is convinced that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.
Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
Few believe the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.
Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance
The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.
We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.
